Of Recession, Potential And Hope by... Fola Ojo

When plans and theories seem to have failed and the path ahead appears crooked; when today looks bleak and tomorrow appears dreary; when the systemic stench signals a deepening and the societal decadence portends a protraction; when the citizens’ strength to keep holding on has dissipated and the inner push to keep up the fight for survival has waned, there, then, comes only one option available to the besieged and beleaguered people of a nation like Nigeria. HOPE! They have to keep HOPING that the tide will turn. That is all that the hapless people can do in the face of hard times that are now pounding hard on the country.

When you engage Nigerians home and abroad in an attempt to draw from their opinions why progress is shut out and development seems to have stagnated, answers come in different shades. The easy way out is to dump every trouble at the doorstep of the sitting President, Muhammadu Buhari. That is naturally yielding to the “Projection” theory in Psychology. Somebody or something has to be blamed for something and everything. Was that not how we dumped all manner of troubles Nigeria faced at the doorstep of former President Goodluck Jonathan? I am sure Buhari is prepared for the dump-truck and the heap of trash that come in it. The dump-truck will not leave the front of his house until his time is up in the house, whenever that is.

The only two things that keep those of us who still believe in Nigeria going are Hope and Potential. Nigeria has the potential to be great; but it’s not yet en-route. And we settle for hope that one day and very soon, the Divine Air Traffic Controller will put the flight back on track and the human pilots in charge of Nigeria’s journey not so jolly will work in alignment with Divinity’s plans. The people are fatigued with theories and hypotheses. Very few believe that government plans will have the breath of life because forces that destroy plans in the labour room of purpose are more than those that take plans to birth in the delivery room of breakthrough.The wave blowing on the nation mayyet be calm; but it’s subtly ferocious. We must be sensitive.

Whatever is dire and grim in Nigeria is not rooted in what this present government has or has not done. There has never been a time that Nigerians sang a song of total deliverance and freedom from those who have used government to kill destinies of men. It’s been one season of struggles and sufferings after another even till today. Poverty, hunger and general state of despondency have been the telling testimonies. To many, it appears as if leaders only have asking hands during campaigns and elections; but have no listening ears when they grab power. Those who are lamenting that conditions are worsening for them and their families are not faking it. Many are hungry and don’t know a way out of the predicaments. There is something wrong with the fundamentals of Nigeria’s economy that remains swathed up in putrefaction and putrescence. No one yet seems able to rectify and debug what ails it. The more the government strives, the worse it seems to be getting. All interventions have amounted to nothing but a measly drop in a deep, unsatisfied bucket.

We know what Buhari inherited. An international debt profile at $60bn, a debt serving bill of N953.6bn, domestic debt today of N8.51tn; and 25 per cent of Nigeria’s annual earning will be spent on servicing the huge debt; contractors’ debts, cash calls of $5bn; and all the blahs. What Buhari inherited does not have to be Nigeria’s inheritance. Trash can become treasure; that is our expectation of this President. Filtering news about the country’s dire and dismal state of the economy are eerie. Amidst this are also many cases of how Nigeria has been looted lean. We have heard how dishonesty and dastardliness in government were perpetuated. The noise around a revealed band of corrupt men and women is deafening. It was first Dasuki; now it’s Dogara. Has the House of Representatives Speaker, a pastor-man of God, become a savvy and cutting edge specialist in budget padding? If I can’t trust my Pastor, am I not in trouble? Well, Nigerians must still not lose HOPE.

Nigeria derives 70 per cent of its revenues from crude oil. The production of the mainstay has fallen to 2.11m barrels per day from 2.18. Militants in the Niger Delta areas continue their relentless cruelty against the pipelines. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Gross Domestic Product in Africa’s largest economy has muzzled up by 0.36 per cent from a year earlier. It’s now almost certain that the economy is heading into a recession.

How will the government now fulfil his promises to spend half-a-trillion naira on the poor through a plan called the Social Investment? How does the government fulfil its promises on Conditional Cash Transfer, where one million extremely poor Nigerians will receive a direct stipend of N5,000 monthly in 2016? How does the government now run the Homegrown School Feeding Programme that is estimated to gulp N96bn? All of these are provisions in the 2016 budget. Nigerians just have to keep HOPING.

The Law of Gravity says that whatever goes up must come down; and it does. In Nigeria, that law has been suspended. At the advent of democratic rule in 1999, the US dollar was sold for N21.89; on May 29, 2015, it was N199. Three months after, 1 US dollar sold for N245. As of today, it is N370, depending on the level of greed of your private currency hawker. Whatever goes up in Nigeria just keeps going up. Even the invisible law of nature is scared of Nigeria and can’t thrive.

The optimism and hope that Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun expressed recently before the Senate is what I will sign on to. Kemi admitted that the economy was in a tough condition but, according to her; “the worst is over”. A capital vote of N247.9bn has been released into the economy; we hope that a full effect of change will be noted as soon as possible by this drop. For 55 years, Nigeria has not got it right. But we can get it right!

Every process of change must launch a fierce attack against brutes and principalities that are determined to continue the status quo of depravity and thievery. And ridding a corrupt system like Nigeria of these elements are as tough as pushing a big rock up the boulder. These are menacing men with means and men; and they are ready to fight dirty whoever fights them. I, however, urge this government to continue doing all within its power to get us out of the woods.For those in the woods, just keep HOPING.