Moment Of Truth by... Sanya Oni

For now, Nigerians can at least heave a sigh of relief that the long-running but rather unproductive debate about the value of the naira has finally come to an end. Just imagine; while the debate lasted, everything –from ordinary household decisions to weightier matters of the macro-economy- was kept on hold. It was like the budget circus all over again. Overnight, everything and everyone became endangered: the hordes of student-migrants in Europe and Americas who suddenly discovered that they could no longer process the so-called ‘Form A’ for their tuitions; the manufacturer who, after completing the rites of filling the ‘Form M’ and shelling out millions of naira to the bargain found that they had no forex  to buy; not least the trader caught in the trap of the 41 items declared ‘no go’ by Emefiele’s CBN; the latter stood no chance in the world of getting the scarce commodity from authorized sources.

Yes, while it lasted, there were enough alibis for different actors to manufacture. Nigeria’s world, we are told, was falling apart. As one might imagine, there was enough blame to go round: the CBN for not making forex available; the government for being clueless in the face of unprecedented meltdown; manufacturers for being hung on forex while doing pretty little about backward integration. Lest I forget – our students, forced to travel abroad for obvious reasons of limited opportunities and poor standards – were told to return home. Never mind that an estimated two million sat for barely six hundred thousand spaces in our entire tertiary institutions. Yes, they can come back home to farm!

Mercifully, all of that is now over. Thanks to Emefiele’s Pauline conversion, the naira is on the float. With an average of N285, you can you have the United States dollars to your heart’s content. For the time being, we can conveniently dispense with the mathematics of forex’s slowing accretion. With$26 billion in the reserves, an amount sufficient to cover five months of imports gravy, CBN Governor Emefiele reckons that the country will do just fine – considering that the global threshold is three months. That is supposed to be some consolation. Nigerians can enjoy the respite while it lasts!

As we would soon be finding out, there is more than enough to worry about. Indeed, the mathematics of forex accretion, as many will soon find out, is everything. To the extent that the current course depends on the ebb of the petro-dollar, we have merely postponed the evil day. Today, we know how much of petro-dollars we can count upon. Pray as we might for quick recovery of oil prices, it seems unlikely that the supplication will be answered anytime in the near term. But that is not even near the potion of affliction waiting to be served by Niger Delta’s rampaging youths sworn to teach Nigeria the final lesson.

The other worry is of course the so-called real sector. Like I noted last week, it is probably chic to pretend that the problem of the sector started yesterday – that it began and ended forex. How convenient!

Sometimes, I am tempted to ask if we have anything that could be described as the real sector. Yes, we have dozens of so-called manufacturers, supposedly big time players. Unfortunately, only in moments like this are they revealed for who they are: packaging outfits or assembly lines! Yes, they need forex for machineries and spares. But that’s not the only reason they need forex: to transfer capital!Yes, they are a group – weaned on government largesse hence not known to be creative or think outside the box!

Pity the small and medium scale industries; in an environment marked by infrastructural inadequacy and institutional indifference, they stand no chance.  Sorry.

None unfortunately, compares with the pathetic federal government. Yes, the federal government is the chief culprit. It has not only betrayed a terrible understanding of the challenge but has proven increasingly at sea on how to go about the job of fixing the economy. Describing the current charadeas a rod ofaffliction, in the circumstance,is an understatement.

Of course, we are in a dire emergency. Only the Buhari administration, with its snail-pace governance style, pretends otherwise. Today, we know for a fact that four out every youth is either unemployed or under-unemployed. Electricity supply is today a rarity; our roads belong in the 19th century or worse; it is certainly no exaggeration to say that the country has since abandoned any pretensions to aspiring to modernity.

Moments like this make comparison compelling. One recalls that the mediocre Shagari administration in the 1980’s had the good sense to come up with an Economic Stabilisation Act when trouble loomed.At least that was some psychological motion! The late President Umaru Yar’Adua even threatened to declare an emergency on the power sector. That at least was borne of the understanding of the moment.

What do we have today? Plenty of motions without any real movement. As it appears, none of the economic indices seems sufficient to stoke the panic button. It is, as they say in popular lingo: It’s all correct!Not the economy that contracted by four percent in the first quarter; not the spate of factory closures; the soar-away inflation that have bowled households over; not the hybrid of youth restiveness  described as militancy; not even the curtain of darkness thrown on the nation by the inept power utility firms seems sufficient enough to jolt the administration to action.

It’s like things can go on like this forever.

In case this federal government forgot: Nigerians didn’t elect them to find excuses; they were elected to fix the problems. Today, if the administration has any grand ideas about solving the nation’s multifarious problems, it is yet to avail Nigerians of them. As Nigerians are wont ask: if it takes a thousand years to prepare for an inevitable madness, how many years will the lunacy last?

From the budget circus and now to the farcical forex play; where do we go next? Where?